THE SCIENCE
Your Readiness Score is built on proven sports science principles used by professional coaches—translated into a clear 0-100 number.
HOW YOUR SCORE IS CALCULATED
We analyze your last 16 weeks of training data from Strava and calculate five key components. Each component is weighted based on its importance to race performance.
THE FIVE COMPONENTS
CONSISTENCY
30% of your scoreThe most important predictor of race success. We measure how regularly you've trained over the past 16 weeks.
What We Measure
- •Weeks Active: How many of the past 12 weeks you ran at least once
- •Run Frequency: Average runs per week (3-4+ is optimal)
- •Regularity: Consistent week-to-week pattern without long gaps
SPECIFICITY
25% of your scoreTraining should match your race demands. A 5K requires different preparation than a marathon.
What We Measure
- •Long Run Frequency: Regular runs at 60-70% of race distance
- •Quality Workouts: Tempo runs and race-pace efforts (10%+ of training)
- •Easy Base: Majority of runs at conversational pace (aerobic development)
LONG RUN READINESS
20% of your scoreYour longest training runs build the endurance foundation for race day. We evaluate both distance and time on feet.
What We Measure
- •Peak Distance: Your longest run vs. ideal for your race distance
- •Time on Feet: Duration matters—especially for marathons (2.5-3 hour long runs)
- •Progression: Are your long runs building appropriately over time?
Distance-Specific Targets
FRESHNESS
15% of your scoreThe taper is where races are won or lost. Reducing volume at the right time lets your body absorb training and arrive fresh.
What We Measure
- •Taper Timing: Volume reduction should start 2-3 weeks before race day
- •Load Ratio: Recent week vs. baseline (30-50% on race week is ideal)
- •Progressive Reduction: Gradual decrease, not sudden stop
RISK ASSESSMENT
10% of your scoreWe identify training patterns that increase injury risk. Lower risk = higher readiness. Based on research-backed injury predictors.
What We Measure
- •Volume Spikes: Week-over-week increases over 30% increase injury risk
- •Acute:Chronic Ratio: Research-backed predictor comparing recent vs. baseline load (optimal: 0.8-1.3)
- •80/20 Rule: Pro coaches insist on 80% easy runs—too much intensity raises risk
- •Back-to-Back Hard Days: Hard sessions need 48-72 hours recovery
YOUR VERDICT
READY
Your training supports your race goals. Trust your preparation and execute your plan.
BORDERLINE
You can finish, but may not hit your goal. Consider adjusting expectations or pacing conservatively.
NOT READY
Training gaps exist. Consider deferring or treating this as a training run, not a goal race.
FINISH TIME PREDICTION
When you have enough training data, we predict your finish time using the Riegel formula—a proven model used by coaches since the 1970s.
T₂ = T₁ × (D₂/D₁)^1.06We find your fastest comparable effort, then extrapolate to your race distance. The prediction range accounts for your readiness score and data confidence.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS
More data = more accurate predictions. We tell you how confident we are in your score.
High Confidence
40+ activities across 10+ weeks. We have a complete picture of your training.
Medium Confidence
20+ activities across 6+ weeks. Good data, but longer history would improve accuracy.
Low Confidence
Limited data available. Keep training and syncing to improve prediction accuracy.
BUILT ON SCIENCE
Our methodology draws from established sports science research and coaching principles:
- →Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio — Gabbett et al. research on training load and injury risk
- →80/20 Polarized Training — Seiler's research on elite endurance athlete training distribution
- →Riegel Formula — Time-tested race prediction model (1977) used by coaches worldwide
- →Taper Research — Mujika & Padilla meta-analysis on optimal pre-competition volume reduction
SEE YOUR SCORE
Connect your Strava and get your personalized readiness verdict in seconds.